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Climat. Les leçons du passé - .

30.11.2014
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Climat. Les leçons du passé
Climat Les leçons du passé

Propos recueillis par Marion Festrats

Express/8/2/2007

Pour participer lavenir, les changements intervenes depuis la préhistoire fournissent de précieux enseignements, explique le géoloque Alain Foucault

Le quatrième rapport du Groupe dexperts intergouvernemental sur lévolution du climat (Giec), rendu public le 2 février, confirme que les températures augmenteront de 1,8 à 4◦ C au cours du XXIᵉ sciècle tandis que glaciers et banquises fondent déjà. Par le passé, lhomme a déjà affronté dimportants changements climatiques. Le géologue Alain Foucault, professeur au Muséum national dhistoire naturelle, à Paris, spécialiste du mammouth, explique à lExpress comment létude des climats passés renseigne sur lavenir.

Quelles sont les grandes modifications climatiques auxquelles lespèce humaine a déjà dû faire face?

Depuis 2 millions dannées, la Terre a connu une succession de périodes glaciaires et dautres plus tempérées. Le dernier maximum glaciaire- la période la plus froide au cours dun âge glaciaire- a eu lieu il y a 21 000 ans. Cest lépoque à laquelle lhomme dessine sur les parois des grottes. Entre cette période et aujourdhui, la Terre sest réchauffée de 5 degrés. Cest vraisemblablement ce qui nous attend.

Comment lhomme sest-il alors adapté?

A lépoque , le climat a été trop froid et sec pour que la forêt pousse.Une steppe infinie, peuplée de bisons et de rennes, déroulait ses prairies de la Bretagne jusquà la Sibérie.Lhomme courait après dimmenses troupeaux, complétant son menu grâce à la cueillette. Quand le climat sest réchauffé, les grands glaciers qui couvraient le nord de lEurope et emprisonnaient les Alpes ont commencé à fondre. Le niveau de la mer sest élevé de 129 mètres, il sest mis à pleuvoir, la forêt a remplacé la steppe. Les grands troupeaux ont disparu ou se sont déplacés vers le sud, et les hommes ont commencé à coloniser le croissant fertile mésopotamien. Plutôt de continuer à courir après le gibier, ils ont jugé moins fatiguant de le réunir pour en faire lélevage. Moins nomades, ils ont commencé à travailler la terre. Cest le néolithique, laurore des temps modernes.

Par la suite, le climat a-t-il influencé lHistoire?

Ces correlation sont toujours très difficiles à établir, mais une littérature surabondante incrimine notamment les à-coups climatiques de la fin du XVIIIᵉ sciècle, les coups de froid et les famines consecutives, comme lune des sources de

la Révolution française. Plus loin en arrière, on sait que la fonte des glaciers et la hausse du niveau des mers ont créé des îles là où elles nexistaient pas, isolant des peuples et des écosystèmes qui se sont développés différemment.

Quels enseignements peut-on en tirer?

Ce réchauffement-là a pris quelques milliers dannées, ce qui laisse le temps de se retourner. Nous nauront pas cette chance. Nous allons au-devant de situations complètement nouvelles. Il faut remonter au moins 60 millions dannées en arrière pour retrouver les températures que nous allons connaître. La vie terrestre a la peau dure, mais certains grands changements climatiques ont engendré la disparition de la moitié des espèces, comme lors de certains épisodes de volcanisme intense. Dautres en ont profité pour profilérer. Cest le rôle de la biodiversité: proposer un réservoir de solutions pour permettre la pérennité de la vie en cas de la modification brutale de lenvironnement. Plus la variété despèces est grande, moins la vie est vulnérable.

Comment anticiper lavenir?

Quand il a voulu étudier la chute des corps, Galilée a lâché des dizaines de boules du haut de la tour de Pise. Avec le climat, aucune expérience nest possible. Seule la reconstitution du passé, modélisée sur nos ordinateurs, permettra peut-être de prévoir ce qui va se produire. Lavenir du climat se lit dans le passé.

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wty123 :
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